Employment Projections 2008-18

Total employment is projected to increase by 15.3 million, or 10.1 percent, during the 2008-18 period, according to the BLS. The projections show an aging and more racially and ethnically diverse labor force, and employment growth in service-providing industries.

More than half of the new jobs will be in professional and related occupations and service occupations. In addition, occupations where a postsecondary degree or award is usually required are expected to account for one-third of total job openings during the projection period. Job openings from replacement needs-those which occur when workers who retire or otherwise leave their occupations need to be replaced-are projected to be more than double the number of openings due to economic growth.

The civilian labor force is projected to grow by 12.6 million between 2008 and 2018, to 166.9 million persons. Slower population growth and a decreasing overall labor force participation rate are expected to contribute to a slowdown in labor force growth. The projected 8.2-percent increase for the 2008-18 period is less than the 12.1-percent growth that occurred between 1998 and 2008.

As the members of the large baby boom generation grow older and continue their trend of increased labor force participation, the number of persons age 55 years and older in the labor force is expected to increase by 12.0 million, or 43.0 percent, during the 2008-18 period. Persons in the 55 years and older age group are projected to make up nearly one-quarter of the labor force in 2018. Young people (age 16-24)are expected to account for 12.7 percent of the labor force in 2018, and persons in the prime age working group (age 25 to 54) to account for 63.5 percent of the 2018 labor force.

The labor force in 2018 will be more diverse. As a result of higher population growth among minorities-due to higher birth rates and increased immigration, along with higher labor force participation rates by Hispanics and Asians-the share of the labor force held by minorities is projected to increase significantly. Whites will remain the largest race group in the labor force in 2018 (79.4 percent) despite growing by just 5.5 percent between 2008 and 2018. The number of Asians in the labor force is projected to increase by 29.8 percent and the number of blacks by 14.1 percent. In 2018, Asians are projected to comprise 5.6 percent of the labor force and blacks to make up 12.1 percent. Hispanics (who can be of any race) will join the labor force in greater numbers than non-Hispanics. The number of Hispanics in the labor force is projected to grow by 7.3 million or 33.1 percent. Their share of the labor force will expand from 14.3 percent in 2008 to 17.6 percent in 2018.

Two major occupational groups-professional and related occupations and service occupations-are projected to provide more than half of the total employment growth during the 2008-18 period. Production occupations are projected to decline. The 30 detailed occupations with the largest gains in employment are expected to account for nearly half of all new jobs, and 17 of these occupations are professional and related occupations and service occupations. The detailed occupation projected to add the most jobs is registered nurses (582,000), followed by home health aides (461,000) and customer service representatives (400,000). All but 3 of the top 30 fastest-growing detailed occupations are found within professional and related occupations and service occupations. Seventeen of these rapidly growing occupations are related to healthcare or medical research.

Occupations that usually require a postsecondary degree or award are expected to account for nearly half of all new jobs from 2008 to 2018 and one-third of total job openings. Among the education and training categories, the fastest growth will occur in occupations requiring an associate degree. Short- and moderate-term on-the-job training are the most significant sources of education or training for 17 of the 30 detailed occupations projected to have the largest employment growth. However, in terms of percent growth, 14 of the 30 fastest growing detailed occupations have a bachelor's degree or higher as the most significant source of postsecondary education or training.

Of the 30 detailed occupations projected to have the largest employment declines, 17 are classified as having short-term on-the-job training as the most significant source of education and training, and 10 are in the moderate-term on-the-job training category. Total job openings during the 2008-18 period are projected to be 50.9 million, and 19.6 million of these jobs are expected to be in the short-term on-the-job training category. Sixteen of the 30 detailed occupations with the most job openings will have short-term on-the-job training as the most significant source of education and training.

More detailed information on the 2008-18 projections appears in five articles in the November 2009 issue of the Monthly Labor Review. The 2010-11 editions of the Occupational Outlook Handbook and the Career Guide to Industries will feature the 2008-18 projections in assessing job prospects, work activities, wages, education and training requirements, and more for numerous occupations and industries.

A graphic presentation of the highlights of the projections appears in the Winter 2009-10 issue of the Occupational Outlook Quarterly. Tables with detailed, comprehensive statistics used in preparing the projections are available online at and projections methodology can be accessed.

(BLS Note: Occupational projections are typically presented and discussed in terms of percent changes and numeric changes. Both perspectives are important, as focusing on only one can be misleading. In many cases, occupations with low levels of employment, such as financial examiners, may grow very rapidly (projected growth of 41.2 percent) but generate relatively few new jobs (11,100). Alternatively, an occupation with a large number of jobs, like retail salespersons, may grow more slowly (projected growth of 8.3 percent) but generate a much larger number of new jobs over the 10-year projection period (374,700).)

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, 12/10/09