Medical Advances Shaping Tomorrow's World

For more than four decades, Forecasting International (FI) has conducted an ongoing study of the forces changing our world. One of the values of tracking major trends over such a long period is that we usually can see whether sudden shifts are indicators of seismic transitions or merely temporary anomalies or fads. This has made it possible for us to anticipate many specific developments in fields ranging from terrorist studies to the future of commercial laundries.

Genetic research has accelerated advances in medicine and in the growth of medical knowledge. Early results include possible cures for hemophilia, cystic fibrosis, familial hypercholesterolemia, a number of cancers, and AIDS. Eventually, some 4,000 hereditary disorders may be prevented or cured through genetic intervention.

At Sangamo Biosciences in California, researchers have experimented with rewriting the patient's own DNA, rather than replacing it, to correct hereditary errors. The technique seems to do away with some of the problems of conventional genetic techniques and may lead to practical therapies sooner than gene splicing.

Also in the works: a new generation of gene-based diagnostic tests that may identify cancer early and tell which drugs are most likely to benefit individual patients with heart disease, cancer, and other ills.

A process called RNA interference, which deactivates individual genes, is quickly revealing the functions of individual genes. It also may be used to disable disease-causing genes, perhaps making it possible to cure cancer, viral ills, and hereditary disorders. A potential cure for HIV/AIDS is expected to be ready for human testing by 2010.

Growing knowledge of biochemistry, aided by advanced computer modeling, has made it possible to design drugs that fit specific receptors in the cell. Drugs created through this technology often are much more effective than natural derivatives.

Almost 400 anticancer compounds are being tested in people, almost all of them "designer drugs" intended to minimize side effects. In 1995, only 10 anticancer drugs were being tested, most of which had severe side effects.

Outside of the United States, brain-cell and nerve-tissue transplants to aid individuals with cognitive impairments, head trauma victims, and other sufferers of neurological disorders will enter clinical use by 2012. Laboratory-grown bone, muscle, and blood cells also will be employed in transplants. Other transplanted tissues come from cloning and related technologies used to grow stem cells. Radical new treatments for diabetes, Parkinson's disease, perhaps Alzheimer's, and many other disorders are can be expected to arrive within the next five to 10 years. Embryonic stem cells have already been found to repair damaged heart muscle.

Nanotechnology research is beginning to produce medically useful products, such as nanoparticles that can carry medication into the cell. Much more complicated devices for both diagnosis and treatment are in the concept stage.

In the next 10 years, we expect to see more and better bionic limbs, hearts, and other organs; drugs that prevent disease rather than merely treating symptoms; and body monitors that warn of impending trouble. These all will reduce hospital stays.

By 2025, the first nanotechnology-based medical therapies should reach clinical use. Microscopic machines will monitor our internal processes, remove cholesterol plaques from artery walls, and destroy cancer cells before they have a chance to form a tumor.

FI believes that cloning and related methods will be accepted for the treatment of disease, though not to produce identical human beings.

Even without dramatic advances in life extension, baby boomers are likely to live much longer, and in better health, than anyone now expects. However, this trend could be sidetracked by the current epidemic of obesity, which threatens to raise rates of hypertension, diabetes, heart disease, and arthritis among boomers, if a cure is not found quickly enough.

High development and production costs for designer pharmaceuticals, computerized monitors, and artificial organs will continue to push up the cost of health care far more rapidly than the general inflation rate. Much of these expenses will be passed on to Medicare and other third-party payers.

A growing movement to remove barriers to stem-cell research in the United States could speed progress in this critical field. This could be expected to produce new treatments for neurological disorders such as Parkinson's and Alzheimer's disease and many other illnesses now incurable or untreatable.

Source: Futurist, Marvin Cetron, Owen Davies, 5/1/8