Coping With A Shortage Of Cancer Doctors

Who will care for America's baby boomers when cancer strikes? A study predicts a shortfall of as many as 4,000 oncologists by 2020, with no easy solution in sight Over the next decade it will get harder and harder for cancer patients to find a doctor, according to a report in the Journal of Oncology Practice. The cause: an oncoming crush of cancer patients which will create a demand for care that dwarfs the supply of doctors able to provide it.

Advances in cancer-fighting medicine and technology have resulted in increasing numbers of cancer survivors. At the same time, an aging and significantly large population of baby-boomers will mean an increase in cancer diagnoses as this pivotal group passes 65, the age at which cancer rates spike. Add to the mix a slowing growth in the supply of oncologists, and according to the authors of the study, the result is a drastic shortage of oncologists by 2020, just as cancer rates in the country are expected to soar.

Even current figures are worrisome. There are about 10,400 oncologists in the United States today with roughly 500 new ones entering the workforce each year. Yet, an estimated 1.4 million people will be diagnosed with cancer in 2007. Looking ahead, the study predicts a 48 percent jump in cancer incidence and an 81 percent increase in Americans living with or surviving cancer in the years leading up to 2020. But the crunch might be felt even earlier as oncologist caseloads rise. "It will likely get tougher to get an appointment with an oncologist over the next few years," predicts one of the study's authors, Edward Salsberg, director of the Center for Workforce Studies at the Association of American Medical Colleges, which conducted the study.

The anticipated strain on the health care system by the demands of the boomer generation is daunting particularly in the cancer fields. At present, there are 27 oncologists for every 100,000 Americans over the age of 65, and total patient caseloads per doctor are up. Meanwhile, the Census Bureau predicts the number of Americans over the age of 65 will double by 2030. Compounding the problem, the existing supply of oncologist providers is due to fall short by as many as 4,080 by the year 2020.

The reasons for the dwindling number of oncologists are two-fold: more than half of today's oncologists are close to retirement, but at the same time there is a nationwide limit on the number of oncology fellowship training slots because of what critics argue were faulty projections in the past.

Source: Newsweek, Eve Conant, 3/1/3/07